Your trading plan should include some sort of technical confirmation with your potential trigger considerations. It is not enough to just have the break of a support or resistance; other technical indications should also be present to support the break-out as well as the subsequent move you are looking for. The list for what could […]
CREDIT CYCLE REVERSING We have been outlining for some time that top line corporate revenue growth has been falling and illustrated at the end of Q2 2015 we had incurred two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Unless corporate expense rates are immediately cut, operating margins are impacted and cash flows are reduced. Since market valuations […]
We have a global shift in confidence. The shift shows itself in the willingness to accept risk. The bond and credit markets are the ones first impacted. SOMETHING HAS SUDDENLY CHANGED We have previously talked about Confidence and Sentiment changing and what Alan Greenspan warned congress about a number of times during his […]
Here are 2 technical trade set-ups that I am watching: both could offer an opportunity for an option or stock trade. VWO Here’s what we were looking at back on Oct 5th when the chart was originally set-up. It had been in a steep drop, recently finding support and moving back to retest long term […]
Market Road Maps, SPX Road Map
Market action on Thursday lifted in to the High Probability Target Zone published in TRIGGER$ on October 1st. “Current market form suggests a consolidation, with another lift up needed to complete before the next significant drop occurs (continuation of the dramatic fall off that can be seen). This could see the red channels above re-tested…… […]
Market Road Maps, SPX Road Map
Today had a slight market pullback that may still be felt a little bit yet tomorrow. However, this is likely just a normal correction to the upward trend, which will continue once the correction is complete. Looking at chart 1 below you can see the current market at several significant technicals: the 13ma, green channel […]
THE GLENCORE CANARY – The Corporate Debt Shocker A HIGHLY LEVERED PLAYER – In a Highly Levered Industry Tied to a Highly Levered China We have felt since the announcement by the US Federal Reserve of its “TAPER” program that an inevitable collapsing commodity market in Emerging Economies would be the catalyst for the next […]
ZeroHedge Since inception in June 1998, UBS’ Managed High Yield Plus Fund survived through the dot-com (and Telco) collapse and the post-Lehman credit carnage but, based on the press release today, has been felled by the current credit cycle’s crash. After 3 years of trading at an increasingly large discount to NAV, and plunging to […]
WHAT ARE THEY SO WORRIED ABOUT? IS IT AN EARNINGS IMPLOSION? Q3 EARNINGS – Q3 EPS Expected to fall -4.5% According to Factset Q3 EARNINGS – S&P 500 Average Earnings Growth Y-o-Y – Not a Good Pattern Q3 ABOUT APPLE AND BOAML Q3 EARNINGS – Q3 Earnings Growth (Decline): Ex-BAC This is how big BofA’s […]
Market Road Maps, SPX Road Map
A few potential moves to watch out for this week. Some correlation between the indexes and stocks. Indexes: SPX, NYSE,NASDAQ SPX: Watching for a little bit more potential lift, where wave A = wave C, taking the market to around the 2055 level. Significant red long-term trend lines and other technicals can be seen in […]