CHANGING INSTITUTIONAL FLOWS Complacency is finally and inevitably beginning to shift to nervousness! Institutional Fund Managers are beginning to see something that actually bothers them. It certainly isn’t overvaluations and many of the market internals we have been talking about for some time. It is something that the big players must always keep an eye […]
The liquidity problems in the Bond market have become so acute that FINRA has summoned the banks and asset managers in for strategy sessions. The urgency requires a plan be implementable by the follow-up meeting scheduled for early July. There is a serious shortage of bonds which are needed to support collateral lending. ILLIQUIDITY DRIVERS […]
Last month I ended with what was worrying me. I would like to pickup from where I left off. The worries were: Central Bank FX Reserves High Yield Signals Liquidity Weakness Liquidity as a concept is notoriously difficult to pin down. It has a reputation for being very much in evidence when not required, and […]
It may not have the clout of the official monthly Dept of Commerce Retail Sales report not due out for two more weeks, but in retrospect considering how many credibility issues with seasonal adjustments government data has had in recent months, the Gallup Consumer Spending report may have become far more realistic than official government […]
1- CONSUMER, INVESTOR & TRADER SENTIMENT Examples of continuing weakening analytics and warning signals are as follows: CONSUMER SENTIMENT – CONSUMER SENTIMENT (Conference Board) The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index FELL SIGNIFICANTLY (-6.1%) to 95.2 during April from 101.4 in March. This missed expectation of 102.2. The comparable Gallup US Economic Confidence Index plunged 9 […]
We have continuously reported the steady deterioration we see in the overall financial markets, but despite this the markets have continued to soar to new dizzy heights. For the first time in history it has occurred in both the equity markets and the bond markets at the same time. We now have a bubble in […]
The evidence continues to mount… “Most since Lehman” has become the new meme for macro-economic data in the US as day after day brings another lacklustre superlative to be dismissed with some excuse by the cognoscenti of sell-side economists… Of course, that is aside from anything related to aggregate jobs that is spewed by the government’s […]
Retail Sales Miss For 4th Month In A Row: First Time Since Lehman Retail Sales Miss For 4th Month In A Row: First Time Since Lehman 04-14-15 Zero Hedge After 3 months of missed expectations and the first consecutive drop in retail sales since Lehman,retail sales rose 0.9% in March (missing expectations of +1.1%), following […]
Over the centuries there have been many stories, some based on loose facts, others based on hearsay, conjecture, speculation and outright lies, about groups of people who “control the world.” Some of these are partially accurate, others are wildly hyperbolic, but when it comes to the historic record, nothing comes closer to the stereotypical, secretive […]
During 2013, the Fed printed $1 trillion and the S&P 500 Index rose 30%. During 2014, the Fed printed $450 billion and the S&P rose 11%. Since 31 October 2014, when QE 3 ended, the S&P is flat. Worse still, it is vulnerable to a sharp correction given stretched valuations, the weak economy and contracting […]