Market Road Maps, SPX Road Map
The chart of the weekly long term perspective above is the view we have been following in our inter-issue updates for some time now (June 6th 2013 first appeared in updates, see lower inlay). Note the long-term view in the inlay (top left). There appears to be a 7 year cycle between tops and bottoms […]
Zero Hedge 01/08/2014 95% of Total Consumer Lent in Past 12 Months is for Student & Car Loans Another month, another disappointment for all those who hope the consumer will finally “charge it.” In November, consumer credit was expected to grow by $14.25 billion, instead it rose by $12.318 billion. However, it was once again […]
A Bizarre Jobs Report: Only 74K New Jobs, But the Unemployment Rate Drops to 6.7% By Doug Short, January 10, 2014 A Bizarre Jobs Report: Only 74K New Jobs, But the Unemployment Rate Drops to 6.7% Here is the lead paragraph from the Employment Situation Summary released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics: […]
LIQUIDITY TRAP As much as the failure to allow the Capitalist to work and the adoption of Unsound Money have set us on a course towards the Globalization Liquidity Trap, the Liquidity Trap will ensure a Fiat Currency Failure. Three elements not previously discussed in the Globalization Trap will be working in parallel and will […]
FIRST – HOW WE GOT HERE 1 – A TEXT BOOK LOG-PERIODIC CYCLE ENDS – Right on Schedule The market rise from the 2008 lows has followed a very ordered pattern that was best modeled using the mathematician Dr. Didier Sornette’s Log-Periodic Cycle. We adopted it with the announcement of QE3. 2 -OUR NOVEMBER 25TH […]
Triffin’s Dilemma: the 2014 edition What does it mean to be the world’s reserve currency? Everbank’s Chuck Butler sums it up nicely in the following quote: “Remember, the country with the reserve currency gets to receive loans at discounted borrowing costs. Also, commodities are priced in the reserve currency, meaning central banks around the world […]
The $72 Trillion Global Shadow Banking System is now larger than the global regulated banking system according to the latest study by the Financial Stability Board (FSB). How could an unregulated and opaque industry, which is larger than the the entire world’s GDP operate with such little attention? Even the FSB is not a government […]
Market Road Maps, SPX Road Map
WEEKLY As the markets were closed on Monday, the current chart reflects the end of last week, and last week’s bar. Current weekly bar will not be printed until the start of trading tomorrow. Chart 3 shows us the market had a large range, but ended the week only slightly negative. The W%R above the […]
SHADOW BANKING – REITS & CMBS Growth Competition for banking business lurks in the shadows 01-17-14 Tracy Alloway in New York Tighter rules for commercial lenders drive growth in shadow banking, writes Tracy Alloway Cocktails, cabanas and credit quality were some of the talking points at a commercial real estate conference held this week in […]
MONETARY POLICY – Dollar, Currency & Gold Outlook Merk 2014 Dollar, Currency & Gold Outlook 01-14-14 Axel Merk, Merk Investments Nothing normal about U.S. monetary policy During her confirmation hearings, incoming Fed Chair Janet Yellen testified that U.S. monetary policy is to revert towards more traditional monetary policy once the economy is back to normal. […]