The Chart of Doom: When Private Credit Stops Expanding… February 5, 2016 Once private credit rolls over in China and the U.S., the global recession will start its rapid slide down the Seneca Cliff. Few question the importance of private credit in the global economy. When households and businesses are borrowing to expand production and […]
OIL WEAKNESS CAUSE – Protracted Period of Cheap Money EFFECT – Over Supply and Mal-Investment Why oil under $30 per barrel is a major problem Posted on January 19, 2016 by Gail Tverberg A person often reads that low oil prices–for example, $30 per barrel oil prices–will stimulate the economy, and the economy will soon bounce back. What […]
“NIFTY NINE” FINALLY BECAME JUST “FANTAsy”! In the November Issue of Triggers we discussed “FANG & NOSH”. In December we further discussed the mutation of this group to the “NIFTY9”. This month as markets fall we need to discuss how the “NIFTY9” finally became just “FANTAsy” and the potential $1T seriousness of what this means. […]
A MASSIVE ‘TAX GRAB’ MUST BE EXPECTED The Financial Repression Authority sees the massive government tax grab already quietly underway accelerating in 2016 in most of the developed economies. This ‘grab’ will be a desperate political act driven by underfunded, and in a significant number of cases, unfunded public pension which will unfold at all three levels of government, […]
Recent research released by both the Pew Research Center and Gallup warn of an accelerating erosion in confidence in our government, politicians and the political process. It is clear to most that we have a growing “Crisis of Trust” which is signaling a “Failure of Leadership” as governments steadily exert increasing power and authority over our lives! FOUR YEARS […]
From farm to pharmaceutical, diesel truck to dinner plate, pipeline to plastic product, it is impossible to think of an area of our modern-day lives that is not affected by the oil industry. The story of oil is the story of the modern world. And this is the story of those who helped shape that […]
SOMETHING IS BURNING IN HIGH YIELD CORPORATES? Junk Bond Crisis Starts to Metastasize A HUGE POTENTIAL PROBLEM Since the Financial Crisis the US Federal Reserve has increased its balance sheet by approximately $3.5 Trillion. In this same period the Junk Bond (HY) issuers have issued $2.2T of debt which the markets have ‘gobbled’ up to […]
DEBT STORM OVER EMERGING MARKETS Something Appears Broken Somewhere? A Year of Warnings For well over a year, each month in Trigger$ we have laid out increasing concerns we had with the financial markets. Our concerns didn’t say the market would crash, but rather the risk was dramatically increasing for the rewards offered. The truth […]
FANG & NOSH BECOME THE “NIFTY NINE” FANG STOCKS Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google Ned Davis Research refers to the NIFTY NINE, which adds: Priceline, Ebay, Starbucks, Microsoft and Salesforce (Note that Apple appears on neither list which until recently was THE MARKET) While the S&P languishes unchanged in 2015, these small groups of overwhelmingly […]
There is potential to see some significant market shifts as we go in to the New Year, potentially starting in the first week of December. Several markets are coming up on important technicals. These technicals could potentially stop and reverse the current trends. As these markets are significant in the overall marketplace, we could see a general […]