TRADING COMMODITY DEFLATION Finding the “New Normal “in a Safehaven! Q1 EARNINGS ARE A DISASTER It is now expected that 2016 Q1 earnings will be the biggest quarterly drop in US corporate profits since 2009. A 9.8% drop is expected with major banks stocks such as Citigroup’s earnings being down 28% Y-o-Y with a double […]
TRADING THE STEALTH SHANGHAI ACCORD The Central Banks Coordinate Monetary “Expectation Setting” Policy TRADING THE STEALTH SHANGHAI ACCORD The Central Banks Coordinate Monetary “Expectation Setting” Policy For the last year we have been reporting on the steadily deteriorating global macro environment. We previously illustrated: Falling Corporate Revenue, Margins, Earnings & Cash-flows, An Imploding Global Energy […]
TECHNICALS BEGINNING TO ALIGN WITH FUNDAMENTALS The Divergences are Becoming Too Many to be Sustained FALLING PROFITS ARE HURTING CASH FLOW; HURTING FLOWS It is now expected that 2016 Q1 earnings will be the biggest quarterly drop in US corporate profits since 2009. S&P Forward Earnings expectations have been steadily falling since mid 2014 and […]
BEWARE OF BEAR TRAPS A Counter Rally No One Believes In This month’s MATA report explores in detail the Long, Intermediate and Short Term Technical and Economic indicators. We have extracted some of the charts to give Trigger$ readers a better perception of the key drivers underpinning the current rally. A rally that is best […]
MORE DOWNSIDE THAN UPSIDE Divergence Between Credit and Equities Will Be Closed! The following is Jeff Gundlach’s (DoubleLine) favorite chart which backs his perspective that equity markets have a: “2% upside and 20% downside from here”. In his words: “These lines will converge…” TREND CHANNEL IS NOW CLEARLY DOWN The trend channel is now clearly […]
EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED! Don’t Ever Underestimate What Central Bankers & Government Will Do. FALLING PROFITS – Weakening Markets We talked throughout 2015 about the falling top line revenue growth. Then in Q3 and Q4 2015 we began talking about falling profit growth. We pointed out continuously how buybacks were hiding reality, as EPS growth was […]
EARNINGS & CASH FLOW FALLING AT UNPRECEDENTED RATES An Acceleration in the Credit Cycle Reversal WE WARNED – Expect a ‘Violent Reaction’ PREVIOUS REPORT WE SHOWED THIS CHART – We Predicted “Violent YE” LATEST CHART – It Was a “Violent YB” We were off slightly! It didn’t happen on December 31st but instead on January […]
A MASSIVE ‘TAX GRAB’ MUST BE EXPECTED The Financial Repression Authority sees the massive government tax grab already quietly underway accelerating in 2016 in most of the developed economies. This ‘grab’ will be a desperate political act driven by underfunded, and in a significant number of cases, unfunded public pension which will unfold at all three levels of government, […]
Recent research released by both the Pew Research Center and Gallup warn of an accelerating erosion in confidence in our government, politicians and the political process. It is clear to most that we have a growing “Crisis of Trust” which is signaling a “Failure of Leadership” as governments steadily exert increasing power and authority over our lives! FOUR YEARS […]
DEBT STORM OVER EMERGING MARKETS Something Appears Broken Somewhere? A Year of Warnings For well over a year, each month in Trigger$ we have laid out increasing concerns we had with the financial markets. Our concerns didn’t say the market would crash, but rather the risk was dramatically increasing for the rewards offered. The truth […]