FANG & NOSH BECOME THE “NIFTY NINE” FANG STOCKS Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google Ned Davis Research refers to the NIFTY NINE, which adds: Priceline, Ebay, Starbucks, Microsoft and Salesforce (Note that Apple appears on neither list which until recently was THE MARKET) While the S&P languishes unchanged in 2015, these small groups of overwhelmingly […]
There is potential to see some significant market shifts as we go in to the New Year, potentially starting in the first week of December. Several markets are coming up on important technicals. These technicals could potentially stop and reverse the current trends. As these markets are significant in the overall marketplace, we could see a general […]
CREDIT CYCLE REVERSING We have been outlining for some time that top line corporate revenue growth has been falling and illustrated at the end of Q2 2015 we had incurred two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Unless corporate expense rates are immediately cut, operating margins are impacted and cash flows are reduced. Since market valuations […]
THE GLENCORE CANARY – The Corporate Debt Shocker A HIGHLY LEVERED PLAYER – In a Highly Levered Industry Tied to a Highly Levered China We have felt since the announcement by the US Federal Reserve of its “TAPER” program that an inevitable collapsing commodity market in Emerging Economies would be the catalyst for the next […]
WHAT ARE THEY SO WORRIED ABOUT? IS IT AN EARNINGS IMPLOSION? Q3 EARNINGS – Q3 EPS Expected to fall -4.5% According to Factset Q3 EARNINGS – S&P 500 Average Earnings Growth Y-o-Y – Not a Good Pattern Q3 ABOUT APPLE AND BOAML Q3 EARNINGS – Q3 Earnings Growth (Decline): Ex-BAC This is how big BofA’s […]
A US REVENUE RECESSION Two Quarters of Negative Revenue Growth I have been talking for some time about a potential earnings recession and possibly even something worse on the horizon. Q2 Earning season and conference calls were as we expected. It marked the first time the S&P 500 index has seen two consecutive quarters of […]
Over valuation has been a contention of ours for some time, but this is the first analysis we saw on a global aggregated basis. The following chart show valuation for both the bond and equity markets in 15 developed market economies. We see as we suspected it is at HISTORIC high levels. Not high, but […]
While the major indexes have seen a drastic move recently (more on these later), the USD takes center stage. I say this because it may give us clues as to what to be expecting next. Similar to the indexes the USD has also had a dramatic drop. Note on the chart that the recent drop […]
Looking at key events many have observed that there appears to be a 7 year cycle. For example looking back at the most recent multiples (going back in 7 year increments), we can see it marks some major adverse market events. THE SEPTEMBER “SHEMITAH” My friend and repeat Macro Analytic guest, Jeff Berwick has published […]
What is the prognosis for market internals which are hemorrhaging and breadth that is at critically low levels? Might the “life support” from the Federal Reserve no longer be enough? Let’s look at both and see what we should expect. MARKET INTERNALS John Hussman writes: “The central lesson of the half-cycle advance since 2009 is […]