HIDDEN AGENDAS – Coming Out of Hiding! We have talked in our GMTP service and our Financial Repression video interviews about what we suspected was ahead for the developed economies as Macroprudential Monetary Policies continued to be hurriedly implemented. I would like to discuss this in the context of the unfolding developments in Greece and […]
Earnings estimates are being steadily reduced while a major year-end lift, which has seldom ever been delivered on, is temporarily being maintained by analysts. Expect it to evaporate in October as Q3 earnings are released. What basis investors can rationalize accept such year-end performance estimates is beyond this simple scribe’s ability to comprehend! LONG […]
The liquidity problems in the Bond market have become so acute that FINRA has summoned the banks and asset managers in for strategy sessions. The urgency requires a plan be implementable by the follow-up meeting scheduled for early July. There is a serious shortage of bonds which are needed to support collateral lending. ILLIQUIDITY DRIVERS […]
Last month I ended with what was worrying me. I would like to pickup from where I left off. The worries were: Central Bank FX Reserves High Yield Signals Liquidity Weakness Liquidity as a concept is notoriously difficult to pin down. It has a reputation for being very much in evidence when not required, and […]
1- CONSUMER, INVESTOR & TRADER SENTIMENT Examples of continuing weakening analytics and warning signals are as follows: CONSUMER SENTIMENT – CONSUMER SENTIMENT (Conference Board) The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index FELL SIGNIFICANTLY (-6.1%) to 95.2 during April from 101.4 in March. This missed expectation of 102.2. The comparable Gallup US Economic Confidence Index plunged 9 […]
We have continuously reported the steady deterioration we see in the overall financial markets, but despite this the markets have continued to soar to new dizzy heights. For the first time in history it has occurred in both the equity markets and the bond markets at the same time. We now have a bubble in […]
During 2013, the Fed printed $1 trillion and the S&P 500 Index rose 30%. During 2014, the Fed printed $450 billion and the S&P rose 11%. Since 31 October 2014, when QE 3 ended, the S&P is flat. Worse still, it is vulnerable to a sharp correction given stretched valuations, the weak economy and contracting […]
IMF Warns Regulators to Brace For Global “Liquidity Shock” As it becomes public knowledge that the IMF has followed the BIS with a warning to brace for a global “liquidity shock”, it has become apparent that banks are already taking quick action. It was a liquidity shock in the Asset Backed Commercial Paper (ABCP) market within […]
During 2013, the Fed printed $1 trillion and the S&P 500 Index rose 30%. During 2014, the Fed printed $450 billion and the S&P rose 11%. Monetary tightening began with the end of QE 3. Since 31 October 2014, when QE 3 ended, the S&P is flat. What all of this has done is left […]
2015 will actually be the first year since 2007 without some form of quantitative easing! During this six year period the Fed’s Balance Sheet has exploded by over $4 trillion and the US Government has spent another $11+ trillion. Between October and November of last year, the Federal Government issued $1 trillion in new debt in one […]