Recently we have begun to see weakness in the US Equity Markets. It has been so long since we have had anything other than relentless increases, it is time to consider what we might expect, for even a mild consolidation – or heaven forbid, a possible correction. I am regularly reminded how similar […]
IS ‘NIRP’ NEXT? The Coming ‘Negative Interest Rate Policy’ The Financial Crisis prompted the US to follow Japan with the implementation of ZIRP. Now we watch as Europe adopts NIRP. Is NIRP next for America? FIRST ZIRP, THEN NIRP? We are watching a tidal wave forming of EU central banks shifting to NIRP. NIRP adopted […]
FIDUCIARY FAILURE The Entitlement Escape through Financial Repression A Fiduciary is a legal or ethical relationship of trust between two or more parties. In a fiduciary relationship, one person, in a position of vulnerability, justifiably vests confidence, good faith, reliance, and trust in another whose aid, advice or protection is sought in some matter. In […]
IS A 2015 US RECESSION A POSSIBILITY? Getting a Lot of Early Signals Suggesting it May Be In the Cards! ARE WE ALLOWED TO USE THE “R” WORD?? Fed’s Beige Book shows concern over consumer spending, oil MW U.S. Retail Sales Down Sharply, Likely Cuts to Growth Forecasts Ahead BL HISTORICAL PATTERNS SUGGEST IT IS TIME!! […]
IS THE KONDRATIEFF WINTER UPON US? FIAT OBFUSCATION HIDES FALLING REAL GROWTH Many studies have shown that human behavior follows predictable cycles with various time frames. The generational Kondratieff Cycle is a well known one. But like a lot of long term generational cycles they have never occurred during Fiat regime era’s such as that […]
In the short term Stocks are topping, the Dollar is topping, the Euro is bottoming, Oil is bottoming, Gold, Silver and Mining stocks are bottoming, and Bonds are rising with further to rise. Bonds will soon be higher than they have been in decades. But don’t be fooled. The central bankers cannot afford to have […]
The drop in oil prices has been a shock to the global financial system. We normally don’t think of a fall in prices as creating shocks, but make no mistake about it this is just as serious as a rise of the same magnitude! This has been a historic month in the oil markets and […]
We have major cracks appearing in the $3 Trillion US Dollar Carry Trade which came into existence in 2008 with the Federal Reserve’s aggressive expansion of its’ balance sheet. A $3T US$ CARRY UNDER ATTACK Since 2008, banks, private equity, hedge funds and major speculators couldn’t borrow the almost free money from the Federal Reserve […]
Let me state at the outset, this is a completely false US stock market and risks have never been higher! However, this doesn’t mean it won’t go higher in the short term. As a matter of fact I expect higher highs in 2015, though the fundamentals won’t support this view. WHAT IS GOING ON? So […]
We suddenly have slowing global growth expectations & a flattening yield curve to support this new shift in market sentiment. The warnings have been there for some time but now bad news is seen as bad news and not simply the good news that this is sufficient reason for the central banks to pump more […]