BUILDING TRADE RHETORIC MAY UNDERPIN NEXT SURGE IN BOND YIELDS It appears according to the latest Philly Fed that business-people of Philadelphia are now more worried about inflation in the next 6 months than at any time since 1988 (shooting up a whopping 23 points to 56.6)… But what the chart says is more concerning for […]
GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM FACING MORE THAN A PERFECT STORM – IT MAY PROVE TO BE OF BIBLICAL PROPORTIONS! The following major shifts each have the potential to push government bond yields and mortgage rates higher. In combination, they create a toxic combination that could bring about the greatest surge in interest rates in decades. 1. […]
HYG, JNK, TNX, TRIGGER$ June 2018
CREDIT CYCLE WARNING: EMERGING MARKET SOVEREIGN BONDS CHEAPER THAN US HIGH YIELD! — SOURCE: 06-14-18 Forbes – “When Will The High-Yield Credit Bubble Burst?” — U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference June 13, 2018 in Washington, DC. After a two-day meeting the Chairman Powell announced that the Fed will increase […]
HYG, JNK, TNX, TRIGGER$ June 2018
CREDIT CYCLE WARNING: EMERGING MARKET SOVEREIGN BONDS CHEAPER THAN US HIGH YIELD! — SOURCE: 06-14-18 Forbes – “When Will The High-Yield Credit Bubble Burst?” — U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference June 13, 2018 in Washington, DC. After a two-day meeting the Chairman Powell announced that the Fed will increase […]
HYG, JNK, TNX, TRIGGER$ June 2018
HIGH YIELD SPREAD EXPECTATIONS HEADING INTO A RECESSION “HY spreads do not have a recessionary look at all” … but let’s see what happens when the QE stops buying corporate bonds. “The energy sector suggest there is some chance of a recession in 12 months, but not sooner.”
HYG, JNK, TNX, TRIGGER$ June 2018
HY:IG RATIO AT LEVELS HEARKENING BACK TO RISK ERA OF OCTOBER 1997 & JUNE 2007 — EXCERPTED from: 06-07-18 ZeroHedge – “Does Deutsche Bank’s Junk Bond Firesale Mean The Party Is Over? “– Less than a month ago, Moody’s warned that “the prolonged environment of low growth and low interest rates has been a catalyst for striking changes in […]
eurusd, TRIGGER$ July 2018, USD
TURMOIL IN EMERGING MARKETS DUE TO EVAPORATION OF US$ FUNDING — SOURCE: 06-05-18 ZeroHedge – “Central Banker Observes Sudden “Evaporation” Of Dollar Funding, Warns Of Global Turmoil” — Last October, just as the Fed started shrinking its balance sheet, we published yet another article on what is arguably the biggest threat to not only risk […]
THE SHELL GAME OF TIGHTENING MONETARY POLICY WHILE MAINTAINING ACCOMMODATIVE MONETARY CONDITIONS — SOURCE: 06-06-18 Michael Lebowitz – “Our Two Cents on the Dollar” — “There are benefits of where the dollar is and there are costs of where the dollar is,” Mnuchin said during a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos, […]
10Y UST FAIR MARKET VALUE MODEL: RATES 100 BASIS POINTS TOO LOW
10Y UST FAIR MARKET VALUE MODEL: RATES 100 BASIS POINTS TOO LOW