SKEW “Is Flashing A Big Warning Signal For Stocks” SKEW “Is Flashing A Big Warning Signal For Stocks” 07-15-14 ZH As stocks have pushed to new record highs in recent weeks, and VIX has dropped accordingly, the cost of protecting desperate asset managers from a far bigger collapse in prices has been soaring. We first noted the record […]
SUMMER SHOCK? A Surprise May Be Coming During the Lazy Hazy Days of Summer! Q1 GDP was revised to NEGATIVE at the end of May. If Q2 Earnings are poor (as we expect) then fear of NEGATIVE Q2 GDP will ignite a Recession Scare REMEMBER: Recession is two consecutive quarters of negative Growth EXPECT […]
THE DELUSIONAL HIGH When Reality, Misguided Perceptions & Delusion Intersect. EXPECT MONETARY MALPRACTICE TO LEAD TO DELUSIONAL BEHAVIOR We wrote extensively in 2012 and 2013 how Monetary Malpractice was creating Moral Hazard and Unintended Consequences through Misinformation and Manipulation. In turn this was leading to behavior which involved increasing levels of Malfeasance, Mispricing and Malinvestment […]
The Central Banks’ “Desperate” Stage is Still Ahead! Carry Trade Reacting to Accelerating JGB Selling USDJPY Taking Aim at 200 DMA and Below US$ ‘Basing View’ At Risk US Treasury 10 Year Yield Breaking Down S&P 500 Rate of Change Tracks Fed Total Asset ROC It’s About Flows and […]
PAY ATTENTION TO CREDIT MARKETS – Divergence Has Been Reliably Warning GOAL: Measure the FAIR VALUE of the S&P 500 using fixed-income drivers. Using statistical methods on known credit and rate drivers, on a cross-asset regression of the S&P 500, it showed two weeks ago that the index was higher than its predicted value by […]
CHARTS of NOTE: RISK Being Withdrawn from the Markets Old Adage “Rarely a Sell-Off without the Banks Leading the Move Lower” Hedge Funds Levered to the Hilt on: AMZN, GILD, DISH, PCLN, YAHOO, and FB Poor Historic Comparisons US MACRO Lowest in 19 Months RUSSELL 2000, 200 Wek Maximum […]
Reflexivity Suggests another Crash Is Inevitable Soros’s Reflexivity Suggests another Crash Is Inevitable 03-13-14 Chase Van Der Rhoer, Bloomberg Markets slumped on a toxic brew of headlines about the dismantling of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, writedowns from UniCredit, losses at Ceasars Entertainment and escalating tension between the West and the kremlin. Investment-grade corporates responded […]
Last month we were looking for a lift to the UBB’s again. This has occurred and the market has recently pulled back. An upper trend channel can be seen that still allows for more potential lift. Watching lower time frames can help give you clues (patterns, other supports / resistances & indicators) for when the […]
Yield, Spread & Credit This Bond YIELD chart shows what we presently anticipate. We are at a MAJOR INFLECTION POINT. A FURTHER INTERMEDIATE INTEREST RATE “SCARE” IS LOOMING! Expect a correction and consolidation. REMEMBER: Financial Repression is at work here and US Bond Yields and Interest Rates MUST be further reduced. We presently expect the […]
