JUNK BOND SPREADS AT LEVELS JUST PRIOR TO THE FINANCIAL CRISIS WITH LEVERAGE WORSE POST FINANCIAL CRISIS LONGER TERM PERSPECTIVE — SOURCE: 10-02-18 – “Junk Bond Spreads Just Dropped To The Lowest Since 2007” — The incredibly shrinking junk bond spread just passed a historic landmark when the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield index […]
BOND YIELDS EXPLODE HIGHER ON HOT ADP, ISM & US$ – ALL EYES ON OCTOBER NFP REPORT — SOURCE: 10-03-18 Seeking Alpha, The Heisenberg Report – “What Happened To Treasurys On Wednesday?” — KEY POINTS On Wednesday, bonds were routed and the selloff was the talk of the financial universe. 30-year and 10-year yields hit […]
THE GLOBAL DIVERGENCE DRIVING THE US$ HIGHER — SOURCE: 09-28-18 Authored by Ritesh Jain via WorldOutOfWhack.com, — “Trump’s Imperial Circle (Or The Most Important Chart In The World)” — Macrostrategy Partnership writes about perhaps the most important chart of the decade… Policy divergence is now set to accelerate the US$ rally. The Fed is in a battle […]
NOMINAL US GDP HAS FRACTURED THE LONG TERM OVERHEAD BOND MARKET YIELD RESISTANCE ZONE — SOURCE: 09-22-18 Lance Roberts – “Bulls Charge To All-Time Highs 09-21-18”– …… we continue to use dips in bond prices to be buyers. This is because the biggest gains over the next 5-years will come from Treasury bonds versus stocks. This […]
HISTORICALLY US TREASURY RATES SHOULD BE MUCH HIGHER — TAKEN FROM: 09-21-18 Global Macro Monitor – “The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market” — Why Haven’t U.S. Long-Term Interest Rates Spiked? Good question. Real long-term interest rates continue to hover around zero percent, which seems absurd to us, given nominal GDP growth is running at over […]
THE FED MAY BE FORCED TO OVER-TIGHTEN DUE TO AN END OF CYCLE “TIGHTENING TANTRUM” RED ANNOTATIONS BY MATASII.com – Chart Courtesy of ZeroHedge.com A Continuation Pattern Suggesting an Inverted Yield Curve in Q2 2019 — SOURCE: 09-19-18 – “Why The Long-End Is Coming Unglued” — With 30Y yields blowing out, the long end is “coming […]
DOLLAR TRADERS SEE THE FED’S NEXT RATE HIKE AS A BIG SELL SIGNAL — SOURCE: 09-20-18 Bloomberg – “Dollar Traders See the Fed’s Next Rate Hike as a Big Sell Signal” — Could plunge 10% in 6-9 months: BNP Paribas Asset Management FX markets may be caught off guard if Fed flags tariff risks When […]
INVESTORS TO BE FOCUSED ON THIS “DOT” DURING THE SEPTEMBER 26th FOMC ANNOUNCEMENT — SOURCE: 09-19-18 – “All Eyes Will Be On This Dot During Next Week’s FOMC Meeting” — With a 25bps rate hike during next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting virtually assured, trader attentions will be focused on something else entirely: the median 2019 dot, […]
THE RECESSION STARTED THE LAST TIME BONDS WERE THIS ATTRACTIVE VERSUS STOCKS — SOURCE: 09-18-18 – “The Last Time Bonds Were This Attractive Vs Stocks, The Recession Started” — The long-end of the Treasury yield curve is blowing out today: whether due to technicals, now that the 3% level has been breached, or amid expectations […]
LACY HUNT ON THE US TREASURY LONG BOND Expectations and Disappointments Coming out of 2017, expectations were widespread that a synchronized global expansion lay ahead for 2018. Forward momentum was thought to prevail in Europe, Japan and the emerging markets. A doubling of the growth rate in public and private debt in 2017 over the […]
