UNDERSTANDING THE 2017 US$ WEAKNESS Not shown in the chart above is the US Treasury selling pressures from China and Japan as they reduced their dollar FX Reserves. It really began to increase after the Trump election victory. Prior to this the banks were already concerned with what they saw ahead for the US Economy […]
DOLLAR FUNDING COSTS (FX HEDGING COSTS) SURGE – “BASIS SWAPS” WILL POTENTIALLY CURTAIL UST DEMAND — SOURCE: 12-27-17 ZeroHedge – “In An Unexpected Outcome, Trump Tax Reform Just Blew Up The Treasury Market” — Over the past week we have shown on several occasions that there once again appears to be a sharp, sudden dollar-funding […]
DOLLAR FUNDING COSTS (FX HEDGING COSTS) SURGE – “BASIS SWAPS” WILL POTENTIALLY CURTAIL UST DEMAND — SOURCE: 12-27-17 ZeroHedge – “In An Unexpected Outcome, Trump Tax Reform Just Blew Up The Treasury Market” — Over the past week we have shown on several occasions that there once again appears to be a sharp, sudden dollar-funding […]
CREDIT RISK TRANSFER (CRT) BONDS THE NEW “BIG THING” FOR BOND YIELDS Floating Rate, Credit Risk Transfer (CRT) Bonds among best-performing debt of year (>10% v 7.2% HY & 5.9% IG), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac said they probably will sell around $13 billion of credit-risk transfer securities in their main programs in 2018, Planned tax […]
IMF WARNS: EM DEBT NEAR POTENTIAL TIPPING POINT DUE TO SIZE OF LOOMING ROLLOVERS Tighter policy to sap funding pool for emerging nations Half of total external debt stock of EM issuers due by 2022 — SOURCE: 12-19-17 Bloomberg – “IMF Warns One of Most Crowded Bond Trades Near Tipping Point” — It’s one of […]
UST SUPPLY ABOUT TO NEARLY DOUBLE – YIELDS INCREASING DEPENDENT ON FOREIGN DEMAND — SOURCE: 12-19-17 Bloomberg – “U.S. Treasury Sales Are About to Double 2018. Who’s Buying?” — Onus may shift to price-sensitive investors like hedge funds If central banks step back, that could mean higher yields With the U.S. about to sell the most debt […]
WEEKLY VIEW The USDJPY continues within a contracting wedge pattern; the current market nearing the wedges resistance. Since the last highs of the market (Dec 2016) the pattern inside the wedge could be a W or double bottom. The right hand side of the W still has more to go, and could take the market […]
US equity futures have hit a new records, helped by surging Asian and European stocks which have all started November on a euphoric note. Surging commodity prices, optimism about tax reform and hope for a new dovish Fed chair all combined to drive global stock markets to record highs, with the MSCI’s world stock index […]
SII: HARD ASSETS – GOLD MINER BULL TRENDS SINCE 1942 – SOMETHING IS HAPPENING HERE? The start of something big? Gold miners bull trends since 1942 Source: Incrementum; ‘In Gold We Trust Report’ Gold mining shares entered a new bull market in January 2016 when gold turned. The bull move has seen a 180% rise […]
Weekly View Currently watching 2 long term weekly patterns: a potential channel from 2015, drawn from the highs and lows shown on the chart; and an expanding wedge that has held the more or less sideways movement since May 2016. The market sits at channel resistance, breaking up above this could mean the expanding wedge […]
