GOLDMAN: CLOSES OUT “TOP TRADE” UST SHORT, BUT STILL SEES YE 3.25% & 3.6% IN 2019 — SOURCE: 07-01-18 ZeroHedge – “Goldman Closes Out “Top Trade” To Short Treasuries” — After calling the market’s peak earlier in the year when it said that the January market meltup marked the top of the S&P, last Friday, […]
IG BOND SPREADS SENDING A CLASSIC BEARISH STOCK SIGNAL — SOURCE: 07-02-18 Seeking Alpha – “A Bearish Stock Signal From IG Spreads” — KEY MESSAGE As the corporate bond market goes, so goes the stock market Over the past three decades, the directionality of investment grade corporate bond spreads has been strongly related to equity […]
3 MO CHANGE OF IG SPREADS MIRRORS GLOBAL CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES How hard is it real for the financial institutions to invest and make money in Investment Grade (IG) bonds? The advent of the central banks “forward guidance” almost guarantees success! But then again who owns the central banks and no one wants to risk […]
3 MO CHANGE OF IG SPREADS MIRRORS GLOBAL CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES How hard is it real for the financial institutions to invest and make money in Investment Grade (IG) bonds? The advent of the central banks “forward guidance” almost guarantees success! But then again who owns the central banks and no one wants to risk […]
THE CORPORATE YIELD CURVE HAS JUST INVERTED — SOURCE: 06-19-18 – “The Corporate Yield Curve Has Just Inverted” — A very interesting observation by the Nedbank analysts is that: The corporate sector curve (Baa-rated Corporates less the Prime rate) has now inverted. The implication of this is just as profound as a sovereign yield curve inversion as it […]
BUILDING TRADE RHETORIC MAY UNDERPIN NEXT SURGE IN BOND YIELDS It appears according to the latest Philly Fed that business-people of Philadelphia are now more worried about inflation in the next 6 months than at any time since 1988 (shooting up a whopping 23 points to 56.6)… But what the chart says is more concerning for […]
GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM FACING MORE THAN A PERFECT STORM – IT MAY PROVE TO BE OF BIBLICAL PROPORTIONS! The following major shifts each have the potential to push government bond yields and mortgage rates higher. In combination, they create a toxic combination that could bring about the greatest surge in interest rates in decades. 1. […]
HYG, JNK, TNX, TRIGGER$ June 2018
CREDIT CYCLE WARNING: EMERGING MARKET SOVEREIGN BONDS CHEAPER THAN US HIGH YIELD! — SOURCE: 06-14-18 Forbes – “When Will The High-Yield Credit Bubble Burst?” — U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference June 13, 2018 in Washington, DC. After a two-day meeting the Chairman Powell announced that the Fed will increase […]
HYG, JNK, TNX, TRIGGER$ June 2018
CREDIT CYCLE WARNING: EMERGING MARKET SOVEREIGN BONDS CHEAPER THAN US HIGH YIELD! — SOURCE: 06-14-18 Forbes – “When Will The High-Yield Credit Bubble Burst?” — U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference June 13, 2018 in Washington, DC. After a two-day meeting the Chairman Powell announced that the Fed will increase […]
HYG, JNK, TNX, TRIGGER$ June 2018
HIGH YIELD SPREAD EXPECTATIONS HEADING INTO A RECESSION “HY spreads do not have a recessionary look at all” … but let’s see what happens when the QE stops buying corporate bonds. “The energy sector suggest there is some chance of a recession in 12 months, but not sooner.”