YIELD CURVE INVERTS AFTER THE DECEMBER FOMC MEETING – US RECESSION 18 MONTHS LATER It is different this time. Asset prices are a signal, such a pity that sometimes this information cannot be discerned until after the fact. What is truly different this time is that past inversions have rotated around a ~5%-rate while this […]
YIELD CURVE INVERTS AFTER THE DECEMBER FOMC MEETING – US RECESSION 18 MONTHS LATER It is different this time. Asset prices are a signal, such a pity that sometimes this information cannot be discerned until after the fact. What is truly different this time is that past inversions have rotated around a ~5%-rate while this […]
HYG, JNK, TNX, TRIGGER$ July 2018
HY FUNDS CONTINUE TO SEE RECORD OUTFLOWS HY funds have continued to record outflows (34th consecutive week). Outflows have accelerated over the past week, as last week’s outflow has been the highest in 17 weeks. Looking into the domicile breakdown, European-focused funds have recorded the largest outflows. Outflows from US and globally-focused funds were also […]
HYG, JNK, TNX, TRIGGER$ July 2018
HY FUNDS CONTINUE TO SEE RECORD OUTFLOWS HY funds have continued to record outflows (34th consecutive week). Outflows have accelerated over the past week, as last week’s outflow has been the highest in 17 weeks. Looking into the domicile breakdown, European-focused funds have recorded the largest outflows. Outflows from US and globally-focused funds were also […]
TRADE WARS ARE BEARISH NEAR TERM, BULLISH LONG TERM FOR THE DOLLAR —- SOURCE: 07-05-18 ZeroHedge – “Why One Trader Thinks Trade War Will Send The Dollar Tumbling” — LONG TERM TRADE WARS ARE DOLLAR BULLISH According to conventional wisdom, trade wars are bullish for the dollar, for two main reasons: They tend to be […]
WANT TO WIN DURING A PROTRACTED TRADE WAR? GO LONG THE DOLLAR! — SOURCE: 07-05-18 Bloomberg – “Want to Win the Trade War? Long the Dollar” — Greenback seen a better haven than yellow metal in trade melee Currency’s correlation to stocks became inverted this year Trade wars are good, and easy to win — […]
GOLDMAN: CLOSES OUT “TOP TRADE” UST SHORT, BUT STILL SEES YE 3.25% & 3.6% IN 2019 — SOURCE: 07-01-18 ZeroHedge – “Goldman Closes Out “Top Trade” To Short Treasuries” — After calling the market’s peak earlier in the year when it said that the January market meltup marked the top of the S&P, last Friday, […]
IG BOND SPREADS SENDING A CLASSIC BEARISH STOCK SIGNAL — SOURCE: 07-02-18 Seeking Alpha – “A Bearish Stock Signal From IG Spreads” — KEY MESSAGE As the corporate bond market goes, so goes the stock market Over the past three decades, the directionality of investment grade corporate bond spreads has been strongly related to equity […]
3 MO CHANGE OF IG SPREADS MIRRORS GLOBAL CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES How hard is it real for the financial institutions to invest and make money in Investment Grade (IG) bonds? The advent of the central banks “forward guidance” almost guarantees success! But then again who owns the central banks and no one wants to risk […]
3 MO CHANGE OF IG SPREADS MIRRORS GLOBAL CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES How hard is it real for the financial institutions to invest and make money in Investment Grade (IG) bonds? The advent of the central banks “forward guidance” almost guarantees success! But then again who owns the central banks and no one wants to risk […]