THE US$ SHORT SQUEEZE MAY ONLY BE STARTING? What is driving what? Currently many feel a US$ shortage was responsible for pushing the LIBOR-OIS spread up, but it also understood that the US$ follows the LIBOR-OIS spread with an approximate 3 month delay. It would appear that “a little soon begets a lot”! This is […]
GLOBAL SWIFT BANKING SYSTEM STATISTICS SUGGESTS US$ LIKELY TO SOON RALLY The U.S. accounts for less than 25% of the global economy and that number will be in steady decline amid the rapid growth of China and India. And yet the dollar still takes up almost 63% of global FX reserves. That mismatch will gradually […]
LIBOR-OIS RISE MAY PORTEND UNEXPECTED RISE IN US$ LIBOR tend to be a 3-month leading indicator to the dollar, which as Citi recently showed would mean a surge in the USD, sending shock-waves across global risk markets…
UNDERSTANDING THE 2017 US$ WEAKNESS Not shown in the chart above is the US Treasury selling pressures from China and Japan as they reduced their dollar FX Reserves. It really began to increase after the Trump election victory. Prior to this the banks were already concerned with what they saw ahead for the US Economy […]
TRADING THE SHANGHAI ACCORD A Potential Game Changer I had the pleasure of talking to James Rickards, the author of books such as “Currency Wars” and “The Death of Money”. As a recognized global currency expert when he feels strongly about something, it is worth listening to. He felt very strongly that we have a […]
CROSS CURRENTS With all investor eyes on developments in Greece, a historic market crash in China, Puerto Rico threatening bond default, it is hard to tell exactly what is driving the market? Is it Bonds, Credit, Currencies, Global Equities etc? Which financial relationships tell us what to expect going forward? Historically for those who watch […]
Dollar surge endangers global debt edifice, warns BIS 12-07-14 Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, FT Bank for International Settlements concerned about underlying health of world economy as dollar loans to emerging markets increase rapidly BIS warned that dollar loans to Chinese banks and companies are rising at annual rate of 47pc and now stand at $1.1 trillion Photo: Oliver Yao […]
